Milton Keynes South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Milton Keynes South: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Iain Stewart  (CON)
County/Area:Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:78,529
Turnout:70.1%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON25,63046.5%
LAB24,97145.3%
LIB1,8033.3%
UKIP1,6463.0%
Green9771.8%
OTH360.1%
CON Majority6591.2%

See overview of other seats in South East.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Milton Keynes South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Milton Keynes South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Milton Keynes South

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Milton Keynes North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Milton Keynes North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Milton Keynes NorthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBradwell6,013Milton Keynes South1,8512,3252131298100234,622
Milton KeynesBroughton8,239Milton Keynes North East2,9662,00322661880075,351
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton8,030Milton Keynes North East2,9192,58225616111300196,050
Milton KeynesCentral Milton Keynes7,840Milton Keynes North East3,0394,3273119413800277,936
Milton KeynesMonkston3,584Milton Keynes North East1,5411,23412736520032,993
Milton KeynesNewport Pagnell North and Hanslope9,451Milton Keynes North East3,5482,1082391489800126,153
Milton KeynesNewport Pagnell South8,748Milton Keynes North East3,0772,4593111711190076,144
Milton KeynesOlney9,307Milton Keynes North East4,0401,9071631279900166,352
Milton KeynesStantonbury10,139Milton Keynes South3,3943,65332419613300137,713
Milton KeynesWolverton9,857Buckingham and Milton Keynes West2,9613,76725018613600387,338
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead3,131Milton Keynes North East9712,0277981510033,212
 Total84,339 30,30728,3922,4991,3901,1080016863,864

The full details of these calculations are given on the Milton Keynes North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Milton Keynes South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Milton Keynes South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Milton Keynes SouthTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East9,140Milton Keynes South2,7063,3521242101180006,510
Milton KeynesBletchley Park10,204Milton Keynes South3,4263,2631772321230007,221
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,136Milton Keynes South3,4513,3852002461300007,412
Milton KeynesBradwell2,860Milton Keynes South8561,0868475400002,141
Milton KeynesCampbell Park and Old Woughton790Milton Keynes North East279249211912000580
Milton KeynesDanesborough and Walton8,563Milton Keynes North East3,5432,069198831100006,003
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley9,556Milton Keynes South3,7262,9132391971260007,201
Milton KeynesMonkston4,606Milton Keynes North East1,9481,53313658730003,748
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End8,953Milton Keynes South3,3682,9382632171380006,924
Milton KeynesStony Stratford7,408Buckingham and Milton Keynes West2,6822,3091501651140005,420
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,373Milton Keynes South2,8522,056179144880005,319
Milton KeynesWoughton and Fishermead6,005Milton Keynes North East1,8133,7751251851050006,003
 Total85,594 30,65028,9281,8961,8311,17700064,482

The full details of these calculations are given on the Milton Keynes South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Milton Keynes South

The new seat of Milton Keynes South is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Milton Keynes South
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
Milton KeynesBletchley East9,336Milton Keynes South2,7063,3521242101180006,510
Milton KeynesBletchley Park10,358Milton Keynes South3,4263,2631772321230007,221
Milton KeynesBletchley West10,632Milton Keynes South3,4513,3852002461300007,412
Milton KeynesBradwell6,461Milton Keynes North1,8512,3252131298100234,622
Milton KeynesBradwell3,072Milton Keynes South8561,0868475400002,141
Milton KeynesLoughton and Shenley10,328Milton Keynes South3,7262,9132391971260007,201
Milton KeynesShenley Brook End9,932Milton Keynes South3,3682,9382632171380006,924
Milton KeynesStantonbury10,781Milton Keynes North3,3943,65332419613300137,713
Milton KeynesTattenhoe7,629Milton Keynes South2,8522,056179144880005,319
 Total78,529 25,63024,9711,8031,646977003655,063

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Milton Keynes South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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